TKMS (AO) | Reduce | Germany pivots to MEKO A-200/F128 - clear order intake upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

TKMS (AO) | Reduce | Germany pivots to MEKO A-200/F128 - clear order intake upside

News comment

Release date: 24 June 2026

Sven Sauer

Equity Research Analyst

+49 69 7 56 96 131

ssauer@keplercheuvreux.com

ReduceTKMS

Germany | Aerospace & defence MCap: EUR4.6bn

Target Price: EUR66.00 Bloomberg: TKMS GR Reuters: TKMS.DE

Current Price: EUR72.80 Free float 39%

Up/downside: -9.3% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 24.1

YTD abs performance 10.1% Market data: 23 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 101.10/57.55

Germany pivots to MEKO A-200/F128 - clear order intake upside

Key points:

German press reports point to a material positive order intake and backlog catalyst for TKMS, with Germany pivoting from the

troubled F126 programme to TKMS’s MEKO A-200/F128 solution. According to Handelsblatt, the scope has expanded from an

initially discussed four vessels to eight frigates, with a reported contract volume of c. EUR12bn for construction plus c. EUR700m

for additional services, subject to final contract structure and parliamentary approval.

Reported unit pricing implies a meaningful Bundeswehr-specific premium versus the export MEKO-200 baseline. While the export

version is reportedly estimated at around EUR1bn per vessel, Handelsblatt suggests the German configuration could cost c.

EUR1.6bn per vessel due to additional requirements and equipment. However, the second tranche is expected to be priced at a

discount.

This is the kind of positive catalyst that can work against our Reduce rating in the short term. A full eight-vessel F128 package

would be a major backlog event and would strengthen the argument that TKMS’s pipeline is converting faster than we assumed.

We would need to have more information on the final contract value, firm scope, margin protection, payment curve and capacity