Metalsa: Strong capital structure endures; USMCA uncertainty overhang – Maintain UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Metalsa: Strong capital structure endures; USMCA uncertainty overhang – Maintain UW

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Metalsa

Strong capital structure endures; USMCA

uncertainty overhang – Maintain UW

Earnings Review

USMCA review important; N. America revenues 87% in 1Q 22 June 2026

The USMCA joint review officially begins July 1st, with the auto sector being a focal Global Emerging Markets | Corporate

point for policy review. This is relevant to METLSA given 87% of revenues were from N. Credit

America in 1Q26, & we estimate historically ~25% of revenues are from exports to the LatAm | Mexico

Automotive SuppliersUS. Suppliers are hopeful for USMCA continuity, or at least a lack of substantive

changes, but changes to USMCA compliant exemptions are not off the table. We note Caroline Rudge

regional content requirement increases could be impactful, especially for steel sourcing Research Analyst

BofAS

(70% regional req. today) as steel is ~45% of METLSA’s total cost. Contracts have raw +1 646 855 2665

material cost pass through, but timing lags & client cost increases add complexity. caroline.rudge@bofa.com

Anne Milne

Research AnalystLTM EBITDA +4% YoY despite volatility; margins strong BofAS

Revenues LTM 1Q26 reached US$2.9bn (-1% YoY), resulting from strong volumes in +1 646 855 4096

Chassis Structures as well as commercial recoveries, partially offset by lower Side Rails anne.milne@bofa.com

volumes due to the ongoing industry-wide freight recession. LTM 1Q26 EBITDA was

US$472mm (+4% YoY) with a 16.5% margin (vs 15% 1Q25) on improved efficiencies.

Exhibit 1: LatAm Peer Bond Pricing

Consumer sentiment may pressure future demand We maintain METLSA ‘31s at UW.

Volumes should remain supported by inventory buffers in the near term. However, Z-