Adyen N.V.: H1’26 preview: topline acceleration, but M&A margin dilution

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Adyen N.V.: H1’26 preview: topline acceleration, but M&A margin dilution

Investment Case

Adyen is one of our "25 stocks for 2026" that we believe are exposed to significant or

market-related catalysts in 2026, and have the potential to drive outperformance in the

upcoming year. It is also part of our Europe 1 list of top ideas. We view Adyen as one of

the fastest-growing EMEA large caps for 2026-2027. We expect cc revenue growth to

remain above 20%, at 21.6% in 2026 and 20.9% in 2027.

We see mid-term growth underpinned by (1) wallet share gains with existing customers,

(2) new wins, with contribution from commercial hiring in 2025, (3) new products / focus

areas including Platform (fastest growing vertical) and embedded finance. We view the

new guidance as an achievable baseline for the shares in the mid-term, allowing investor

focus to shift to the long-term structural outlook and strong fundamentals of the

business.

Beneficiary of eCommerce growth

We see Adyen as well-positioned to benefit from a solid global e-commerce market,

which is expected to grow around 10% YoY (in USD) in 2026, accelerating versus 8.1%

2025. Within this, Europe should expand by 7% YoY and the US by 9%. Looking ahead,

we believe the rise of agentic commerce will further accelerate e-commerce growth and

favor companies with strong technological capabilities, such as Adyen.

Key debates: Agentic Commerce and Stablecoins

On June 16th, Adyen announced Adyen Agentic to support retailers in their integration

with agentic platforms. We see the single integration providing access to every available

agentic platform and protocol as a key differentiating factor, in contrast with more

fragmented agreements in the market today. This should therefore help retailers