Liquid Insight: Fed hawkish, stay paid US 2Y

研报英文原文证据摘录

Liquid Insight: Fed hawkish, stay paid US 2Y

Accessible version

Liquid Insight

Fed hawkish, stay paid US 2Y

Key takeaways 22 June 2026

Rates and Currencies Research• Fed hawkish shift reinforces our core US rate views: pay 2Y, 2s10s flatteners, short

Global USTs vs global rates

• Lower oil will not see US rates decline as much as RoW b/c stronger data & less

macro commodity sensitivity GlobalMLI (UK)Rates & Currencies Research

• US 2s10s curve biased flatter & could invert; curve inversions don't always mean Mark Cabana, CFA

recession but they do mean restrictive Fed Rates Strategist BofAS

+1 646 743 7013

mark.cabana@bofa.com

By M. Cabana, M. Swiber, R. Axel, & E. Xiao Meghan Swiber, CFA

Exhibit 1: Taylor rule & Fed target (%) RatesBofASStrategist

Taylor rule is running well above Fed target; Fed end ’26 medians in Taylor = 5% FF +1 646 743 7020

meghan.swiber@bofa.com

Fed Target Taylor Rule Ralph Axel 10

Rates Strategist

BofAS

+1 646 743 7011

ralph.axel@bofa.com

5 Eleanor Xiao

+1 646 556 2987

0 eleanor.xiao@bofa.com

Oliver Levingston

FX and Rates Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

oliver.levingston@bofa.com

-5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 See Team Page for List of Analysts

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve; diamond = Fed end ’26 median values in standard Taylor rule

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Task force hawkish Recent Publications

US data has been strong & the Fed turned hawkish. Fed Chair Warsh acknowledged US

monetary policy is not restrictive (ex housing) & halfFed dots see hikes. Standard Taylor 18-Jun-26 Bearish EUR views from

rule suggests using Fed median projections by end ’26 = 5% (Exhibit 1). It increasingly across the pond

seems like Fed hikes are a question of when, not if. Consistent with this, our US Econ 17-Jun-26 BoE Preview: Ready, steady…