Latam Macro Notes: Peru – Keiko Fujimori set to become next president

研报英文原文证据摘录

Latam Macro Notes: Peru – Keiko Fujimori set to become next president

24 June 2026

Latam Macro Notes

After 7 presidents in 10 years, Peru might finally have some political stability. With

a right-leaning Senate, Fujimori should have enough political support to advance

parts of her agenda, at least early in her term (Figure 2). In Congress, Fujimori will

require the cooperation of the centrist party "Buen Gobierno," which has

historically aligned with the right on economic policies while supporting the left

on social programs. We foresee a continuation of this dynamic during Fujimori's

presidency. Ordinary laws require a simple majority in both houses, while

amendments to the constitution require only 2/3 of votes. Important nominations,

such as for members of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), require a

simple majority in the Senate. Given the composition of the newly formed Senate,

we expect the BCRP to maintain its institutional strength and credibility.

Figure 2: New Congress and Senate composition, amid fragmented, is tilted to the center + right

Source: RNEC, El Tiempo, Infobae, CNC, Guarumo, GAD3, AtlasIntel, Invamer, WAA, Ipsos Peru, La Republica, CPI, Datum Internacional, and Deutsche Bank Research.

The return to a bicameral legislature should make policymaking more orderly and

reduce impeachment risk. Given the close election results and a highly polarized

society, Fujimori will likely form a cabinet drawing from various parties and is

expected to avoid unpopular policies, such as reductions in social benefits, at the

outset of her term. The reinstatement of bicameral legislature, now comprising

only six parties (compared to over 14 in the previous composition), should

facilitate more efficient legislative discussions. Regarding impeachment, local