Initial Thoughts on Restructuring Announcement Post Our CFO Callback

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initial Thoughts on Restructuring Announcement Post Our CFO Callback

TD Cowen Lucid Group

Global Research June 22, 2026

VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS

Valuation Methodology

Automobiles:

Our automaker valuation methodology is dependent on company-specific circumstances.

For mature automakers, we tend to use an average of P/E and EV/EBITDA. For higher growth

automakers, we tend to use DCF and, where appropriate, probability weighted scenarios.

Investment Risks

Automaker stocks face several risks including: (1) Risks tied to vehicle demand and unit

profitability (macro, trade, competition, geopolitics, adverse changes in segment and/or

powertrain mix); (2) Raw material costs and availability; (3) Labor disruptions; (4) Regulatory

developments and related compliance costs; (5) Execution risks from new product launches

and company-specific initiatives; (6) Headline risks from litigation, regulatory uncertainties,

recalls and product reviews; (7) FCF volatility that can occur upon significant production

declines; (8) Supply-chain related risks.

Risks To The Price Target

Downside

■ We expect Lucid to require significant additional funding in the coming years, without which

the equity could lose most or even all of its value

■ Launch execution risk with the Gravity launch (2025) and Premium SUV launch (2026)

■ Potential risks & volatility tied to PIF's large equity stake in the company

■ Macro, trade and geopolitical events can materially impact auto demand

■ Cost execution setbacks (warranty) and/or higher cost inflation (raw materials)

■ Worse than expected industry pricing owing to macro and/or competition

■ Headline risk from litigation, regulatory uncertainties, recalls or product reviews

■ Execution risks from new product launches and other company-specific initiatives