Pharvaris N.V.: Under the Lens: Ph3 CHAPTER-3 Positions Deucrictibant to Reset the Oral Prophy Bar

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pharvaris N.V.: Under the Lens: Ph3 CHAPTER-3 Positions Deucrictibant to Reset the Oral Prophy Bar

IdeaMExhibit 1: PHVS Stock Scenarios

Details of the scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

“Superior injectable-like” Parity with strong

Study fails, safety signal,

Outcome profile - 85%+ rate secondary endpoints -

or disappointing efficacy

reduction 75%-85% rate reduction

Scenario probability 25% 50% 25%

PHVS potential change in

Up ~35%+ Up ~10-20% Down ~40%+

stock price

PHVS potential stock

$45+ ~$37 - $40 <$20

price

Source: Morgan Stanley Research; The probabilities shown are only illustrative. They do not forecast a precise series of events and do

not account for all possible outcomes but instead illustrate our sense of the relative plausibility of selected scenarios, based on

current industry dynamics.

We hosted a KOL who discussed HAE prescribing dynamics and growth in both

prophylaxis and on-demand treatment markets. The KOL treats ~145 HAE patients

annually and estimates that ~35% of patients are treated with on-demand therapy

only, while the remaining ~65% of patients are on prophylactic treatment + on-

demand therapy for breakthroughs. The KOL noted growth in both on-demand and

prophylaxis treatment markets. With active market growth in both segments, we

see increasing relevance for deucrictibant's dual profile, which has the potential to

capture share in both on-demand and prophylactic segments. For on-demand

treatment, the KOL sees deucrictibant Ph3 on-demand data as certainly comparable

to Ekterly and very competitive. For the deucrictibant Ph3 CHAPTER-3 trial for

prophylactic treatment, the KOL sees the bar as >80% attack reduction rate.

While patients that are happy with Orladeyo may choose to stay on it, he anticipates