DBDaily: US equities drop amid AI capex concerns; DB: US10yr yields at 4.8% by year-end

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DBDaily: US equities drop amid AI capex concerns; DB: US10yr yields at 4.8% by year-end

23 June 2026

DBDaily

broadly in line with 25bp of additional tightening market pricing added since

March. DB’s base case remains for one more ECB hike to 2.5%.

Bitcoin update. Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$63,000, down ~50% from its

~$128,000 peak in October 2025. Marion Laboure thinks the sell-off reflects a

combination of: (i) a hawkish shift in the Fed outlook; (ii) record institutional ETF

outflows and thinning liquidity; (iii) a sentiment shock from Strategy’s first Bitcoin

sale since 2022; and (iv) a more structural force now visible: the rotation of risk

capital into AI. In this update, Marion disentangles the short-term trigger from

medium-term drivers, assesses the AI dynamic, and revisits the CLARITY Act —

now closer to passage than ever, but on a tight timeline.

German pension reforms to deliver a boost to capital markets. Marion

Muehlberger highlights a surprising, and game-changing, element of recently

released pension reform proposals for Germany – the introduction of a mandatory

funded component, with 2 pp of gross salaries to be additionally invested in a

centralized public pension fund. This will eventually add up to €35bn in additional

investments into capital markets with no pre-defined asset allocation or country

split, potentially boosting German capital markets.

The day ahead

Australia CPI, May. DB’s preview here.

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser speaks. 4:30pm Sydney time. From the RBA

website: The lecture focuses on theoretical issues for an academic audience and

will not include discussion of live monetary policy issues; as such there is no

livestream or Q&A.

Japan PPI services, May.

Germany IFO survey, June.

US building permits & new homes sales, May.