Market missing the forest for the trees

研报英文原文证据摘录

Market missing the forest for the trees

Equity Research - 25 June 2026 06:29 CEST

Reason: Preview of resultsAlm. Brand

• Q2e: Underlying improvements while one-offs hurt

• Continued earnings momentum, but higher short-term risk

• '26e-'27e P/Es of 13x-12x: BUY reiterated, TP of DKK 20 Financials

Q2e: Underlying improvements while one-offs hurt Estimate changes (%)

We expect a Q2 underwriting result of DKK -110m, but DKK 590m (+13% 2026e 2027e 2028e

y-o-y) adj. for the DKK 700m one-off related to the Danish workers’ Premiums 0.3 1.0 1.1

compensation ruling. We derive an underlying undiscounted combined Combined ratio 0.3 0.1 0.1

ratio of 78%, a y-o-y improvement of 1pp, supported by continued Operating profit 8.3 0.8 1.2

commercial churn and synergy realisation, albeit partly offset by higher EPS adj. 4.0 0.7 0.5

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

expected motor frequency. Bridging from underlying to reported, we expect

lower weather-related claims and large losses, but significant run-off ALMB-DK/ALMB DK

losses (due to the one-off), bringing the reported combined ratio to 103.7% Share price (DKK) 23/6/2026 15.65

(79.2% adj.). We expect a strong investment result of DKK 161m, driven Target price 20.00

by solid equity returns and more normalised bond returns.

Small positive revisions on strong Q2e and higher premiums MCap (DKKm) 22,739

We make limited underlying revisions, but we incorporate our repricing MCap (EURm) 3,042

expectations for workers’ compensation following the ruling, anticipating No. of shares (m) 1,453.0

price increases of ~15% from a broadened claims scope. Assuming a Free float (%) 49.9

normal repricing lag, premiums rise by ~1% for '27e-'28e. As the WC Av. daily volume (k) 735

claims inflation materialises immediately (while premium increases