AI Server 360 (Holistic Supply Chain Tracker)

研报英文原文证据摘录

AI Server 360 (Holistic Supply Chain Tracker)

19 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Consumer Electronics

Industry Overview

Memory becomes too big to fall; 35%–40% of AIDC capex in 2027–2028

Senior Analyst: Summary

Dale Gai We revise up our AIDC capex forecasts for 2026–2029 (see Figure 1) mainly

+81 3 6202 8135 based on higher memory costs, which should meaningfully boost spending

dale.gai@mizuho-sc.com by hyper-scalers. From an IT perspective, we estimate global AIDC capex

to reach close to $1.2t in 2027 (up 50% YoY) and $1.5t in 2028 (up 32%Senior Analyst:

YoY), both higher than market expectations based on current BOM cost on AIYasuo Nakane

servers. The upside mainly comes from industry's optimistic outlook for further+81 3 6202 8124

yasuo.nakane@mizuho-sc.com memory price increases in 2027, particularly from HBM, along with higher

adoption of external CPU (LPDDR) and ICMS (SSD flash) racks for KV cacheMizuho Securities Asia: offload demand in agentic AI. It addresses positive cases for DRAM/NAND

Kevin Wang makers with higher earning upside in 2026–2027. To CSP and hyper-scalers,+852 2685 2032 on the other hand, memory will likely be the highest cost driver by accountingkevin.wang@hk.mizuho-sc.com

for 35%–40% of total capital spending (including infra/land) in 2027–2028,

Senior Analyst: considering supply constraints. Since their capex is likely to outpace operating

Yoshitsugu Yamamoto cash inflows by end-2026 with a widened gap from then, based on an industry

+81 3 6202 8169 survey (see Figure 5), any significant capex slowdown would materially impact

yoshitsugu.yamamoto@mizuho-sc.com on memory pricing dynamics, while we do not expect this to be the case in

Mizuho Securities Asia: the next 12 months.

Yini Li