Celsius Holdings Inc: Lowering Estimates and PT on Continued Brand Celsius Weakness; OW With Favorable Risk/Reward

研报英文原文证据摘录

Celsius Holdings Inc: Lowering Estimates and PT on Continued Brand Celsius Weakness; OW With Favorable Risk/Reward

tougher comparisons. Alani § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

sales are +60% in scanner data QTD, but we believe that growth has also slowed in Quarterly EPS ($)

recent weeks as it cycled the launch of last year's Cotton Candy LTO. We are 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

Overweight CELH with a favorable risk/reward following the stock

Q1 0.18 - 0.41a 0.47 0.43

underperformance and depressed multiple, with solid category growth, favorable Q2 0.47 0.41 0.39 0.52 0.48

Q3 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.50 0.47

pricing with Red Bull's +HSD price increase announced for Aug 1 (see here and here),

Q4 0.37 0.25 0.24 0.31 0.31

and a path to brand Celsius improvement later this summer. We are lowering FY26/ e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

FY27 sales by -2%/-3% and Adjusted EBITDA by -2%/-5%, however, to reflect lower

baseline brand Celsius sales assumptions. We are also lowering our PT from $55 to

$48, with a lower multiple to reflect limited short-term visibility.

Path to Improved Celsius Scanner Growth: Although overall brand Celsius retail

takeaway is running down ~2% QTD and down -MSD in recent weeks, the brand

continues to post robust growth on Amazon (which isn't impacted by SKU

rationalization) and solid growth in select markets like NYC where SKU reductions

have been more limited. Brand Celsius velocity also remains up y/y amid the SKU

reductions, with remaining/core SKUs up even stronger. While we expect CELH

scanner data to remain soft over the coming weeks, brand Celsius sales should Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with