Hungary Economics and Macro Strategy: NBH Review: Bucking the Hawkish Trend

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hungary Economics and Macro Strategy: NBH Review: Bucking the Hawkish Trend

IdeaM

Fixed Income Disclosures

Exhibit 4: Valuation methodology and risks

Trade Date Entry Level Target Stop Rationale Risks

We expect EUR/HUF to move toward 340 in a de‑escalation scenario, driven primarily by risk premium compression rather than flows. Global shock to oil prices and central

Short EUR/HUF 15-May-26 360.3 340 370 Positioning remains elevated but supported, with limited scope for intervention, while lower FX volatility will be key in sustaining the bank cutting rates faster than

longer‑term convergence story. expectations

HUF 5Y5Y vs PLN 5Y5Y 15-May-26 0 -50 20 We expect further risk compressiontake somein HUFprofit.vs PLNBut wealthoughexpectwelongunderstandend to compressthe big movefurtherhasagainsthappenedPLN and those in the trade should Worseningpositioningof fiscalunwindscenario and

Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 5: History of recommendations

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Definition of terms

Buy/Long: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the

recommendation) of the instrument or issuer that is the subject of the investment

recommendation to be positive over the relevant time period.

Sell/Short: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the

recommendation to be negative over the relevant time period.

Selling protection or Buying Risk: The analyst expects that the price of protection against

the event occurring will decrease over the relevant time period.

Buying protection or Selling Risk: The analyst expects the price of protection against the

event occurring will increase over the relevant time period.

Pay: The analyst expects that over the specified time period the variable rate underlying