Vossloh (1K) | Buy | The wrong debate - again

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vossloh (1K) | Buy | The wrong debate - again

#EstimatesRevision #HighConviction #Proprietary

Release date: 23 June 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyVossloh

Germany | Capital goods Beta Profile: MCap: EUR1.2bn

Target Price: EUR85.00 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: VOS GR Reuters: VOSG.DE

Current Price: EUR63.00 Change in Sales: -1.9% 26E/-1.7% 27E Free float 50%

Up/downside: 34.9% Change in Adj EBIT: 6.9% 26E/2.3% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 2.7

YTD abs performance -17.5% Market data: 22 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 5.8% 26E/1.0% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 94.00/62.60

The wrong debate - again Price performance

Why this report?

Since the start of the Iran crisis, Vossloh has lost almost a quarter of its value,

massively underperforming energy-sensitive airlines and European small

caps which have been broadly flat. That is despite earnings expectations that

have barely moved. Instead, the market concern appears to be German rail

funding. We think this is the wrong debate. The German infrastructure fund

should be seen as a mechanism to safeguard existing rail infrastructure plans,

rather than as a new earnings windfall or a source of downside risk. The share

price now seems to be correcting a misconception that was too optimistic in

2025 and is now too pessimistic in 2026. Consequently, we reiterate Buy with

an EUR85 target price, implying 27% upside from current levels. We also take

the opportunity to revisit our estimates, which are now slightly below

consensus in FY26–27 and slightly ahead in FY28. FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/25 12/26E 12/27E

Sales 1,343 1,612 1,698

Key findings EBITDA adj. 181 221 243

Our work on Deutsche Bahn (DB) funding shows that the infrastructure fund EBIT adj. 120 143 163

Net profit adj.