Germany Schnappschuss: Annual Housing Completions: From 2025 Slump to 2026 Rebound

研报英文原文证据摘录

Germany Schnappschuss: Annual Housing Completions: From 2025 Slump to 2026 Rebound

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Economics Date

Germany 22 June 2026

Germany

Schnappschuss

Annual Housing Completions: From

2025 Slump to 2026 Rebound

Jochen Moebert

Residential Construction: Strongly Supply-Side Constrained Senior Economist

+49-69-910-31727

In 2024, residential completions exceeded even our already optimistic forecast

(forecast: 240,000; official data: 252,000). However, 2025 marked a significant

setback, with the housing market experiencing a sharp downturn. Only 207,000

dwellings were completed, down 18% year on year and the lowest level since 2012.

This was clearly below our expectation of 250,000.

2025: Construction Backlog Stagnated Against Expectations

The biggest surprise was that the construction backlog—defined as approved but

not yet completed dwellings—remained broadly unchanged at around 760,000

units at the end of 2025, similar to the level recorded in 2024. Relative to Germany’s

existing housing stock, the backlog stood at 1.8% in 2025, whereas a “natural”

backlog, measured by the historical median, typically lies slightly below 1%.

We had expected the backlog to decline by 23,000 dwellings in 2025. This

assessment was based on relatively low capacity utilization, which fell from above

80% before the interest rate shock in 2022 to well below 70% in 2025 and remained

around that level in 2026. In principle, this should have freed up additional capacity

to absorb new demand. On the supply side, labour shortages and bureaucratic

constraints may help explain why the backlog remained broadly unchanged. On the

demand side, some projects may still be in the pipeline, with developers waiting for

a more supportive investment environment.