U/P Case Remains After Incremental Setback

研报英文原文证据摘录

U/P Case Remains After Incremental Setback

UK | Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges

Rathbones Group EquityJuneResearch18, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEU/P Case Remains After Incremental Setback

RAT has £60m of one-off costs, a c. £20m annual revenue reduction and RATING UNDERPERFORM

a flow hiatus in some areas as a result of Tuesday's Skilled Person Report. PRICE 1,620.00p^

Our model now only has net flows recovering to neutral in 2028, which PRICE TARGET | % TO PT 1,360.00p (1,780.00p) |

may prove optimistic. Lots of risks remain: staff and client retention, brand -16%

52W HIGH-LOW 2,500p - 1,582p

damage, further revenue margin erosion, AI, competition etc., so we remain

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 52.9% | 3.30

cautious, with an Underperform rating and a £13.60 PT. Our downside case

MARKET CAP £1.8B | $2.4B

valuation is £9.50.

TICKER RAT LN

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Forecast changes: We have taken £18m a year off our investment management fees by noted.

cutting the Wealth Management division IM fee margin from 55bps to 54bps in our forecasts

(not touching commission or NII). We have also assumed WM gross inflows are £2.3bn lower

from July 2026 to June 2028 than previously (£17.4bn from £19.7bn). We administer this as a FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

percentage reduction, and restore it after 1H28. We put through a non-underlying £60m cost of 2026 2027 2026 2027

the change, so it does not bring down adjusted forecasts, but we to look on adjusted financial REV -1% -4% NA NA

measures askance in this industry, where so much negative historical cash flow goes through EPS -4% -14% -6% -13%

the Depreciation & Amortisation line and profit growth remains elusive. A write-down of the

£505m of Goodwill may appear in the 1H26 results.