AGI: Guidance reduced following YD seismic events; negative

研报英文原文证据摘录

AGI: Guidance reduced following YD seismic events; negative

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Josh Wolfson (Head of Global Metals & Mining

Research)

David Monus (Associate)

Connor Snarr (Associate)

John Robertson (Senior Associate)

June 18, 2026

Alamos Gold Inc.

Guidance reduced following YD seismic events; negative

NYSE: AGI | USD 36.34 | Outperform | Price Target USD 52.00

Sentiment: Negative

Event: AGI provided an operating update and revised its 2Q operating targets.

Impact: Negative. 2Q production guidance was revised to 130-135koz, a -12% change vs prior targets of 145-155koz (RBCe

145koz, Cons. 146koz). This follows seismic events at YD and recovery timing at Mulatos' La Yaqui Grande. Revised annual

guidance will be released with 2Q financial results in late-July, where AGI noted production and costs would not meet its prior

targets. Our preliminary assessment outlines a potential >10% negative impact to prior 2026 production targets and CFPS. In

our view, mining challenges at YD likely impact the mine's operating targets beyond 2026 and potentially indicate a higher

ongoing cost structure.

• Young-Davidson (18% of NAV, 21% of EBITDA): Two seismic events damaged infrastructure and cut access to two high-grade

stopes. Production was further impacted by 3 days of storm-related power outages and lower grades. Mining rates are guided

to average ~5ktpd (prev. 8ktpd) for the remainder of 2026. The company is optimizing the mining sequence and adding ground

support, supporting higher mining rates in 2027.

• Island Gold (60% of NAV, 60% of EBITDA): Underground mining rates achieved >1.5ktpd in 2Q, with operations targeting 2ktpd

by YE26. Magino mill throughput averaged ~9.8ktpd in June, and is guided at 10ktpd by 3Q.