Charles River Laboratories International: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Charles River Laboratories International: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Charles River Laboratories International (CRL.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Revenue Growth (%) (0.9) (4.5) 0.8 6.1

Operating Margin (%) 19.8 21.3 24.0 24.5

EPS Growth (%) (0.1) 7.6 10.1 9.1

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Strategic agreement with large pharma (+) RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Pharma consolidation (-) Faster than anticipated biotech demand

recovery Sales / 3,866

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Cost cutting initiatives materialize faster than Revenue 3,840 4,043

expected ($, mm) 3,928

Pricing pressures subside faster than

0-10% Mainland China anticipated, proving upside to margins

20-30% Europe ex UK 1,090

60-70% North America RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,019 1,254

($, mm)

Slowing in the biotech recovery, weighing on 1,063

pre-clinical demand and CDMO/manuf.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

Seq. weakening of large pharma demand,

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 614

causing uptick in cancellations and softening Net income

562 655

B2B ($, mm)

MS ALPHA MODELS Pricing pressures worsen weighing on margins 600

24 3 Month 12.25 3/5 Month 5/5 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS Horizon Horizon BEST MOST 11.65 13.76

($)

Inst. Owners, % Active 60.5% 12.33Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x

Quintile Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates HF Sector Net Exposure 17.5%

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.