Thoughts From CMA Polyolefins Expert on Impact of Potential US/Iran Settlement

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thoughts From CMA Polyolefins Expert on Impact of Potential US/Iran Settlement

June 18, 2026 | 05:45 ET~

US Chemicals

Thoughts From CMA Polyolefins Expert on Impact of US Chemicals

Potential US/Iran Settlement John P. McNulty, CFA Analyst

john.mcnulty@bmo.com (646) 946-8428

Bhavesh Lodaya Analyst

Bottom Line: bhavesh.lodaya@bmo.com (347) 274-1393

With the potential for a settlement/peace in the US/Iran conflict, we spoke to Joel Caleb Boehnlein Senior Associate

Morales, the VP of Polyolefins Americas at CMA. Some of the key points discussed caleb.boehnlein@bmo.com (347) 906-1860

centered around global production levels before and after the war in the Middle East, Margarita Margulis Associate

the current inventory levels, Strait of Hormuz flows, and capacity additions and delays margarita.margulis@bmo.com (332) 257-0592

globally. North America output has risen to mid-90% rates, while Middle East runs Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.

remain structurally impaired and unlikely to recover this year. China inventories and

capacity continue to anchor pricing and offset disruptions, leaving markets well supplied

and margins under pressure, with additional capacity unlikely to rebalance conditions

near term given persistent global oversupply dynamics.

Key Points

On global production levels, the expert spoke about higher production in North

America with pre-conflict levels being in the low 90s, ramping up mid-90s levels

currently--300mn lb more than pre-conflict. In the Middle East, CMA had production

levels at 45% in April and May, down from 85% pre-war, and CMA believes production

will rise but not back to past levels this year owing to physical damage to plants in

the region (Sadara Chemical complex in Jubail; SAMREF in Yanbu), Iranian assets still

down.