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W: Investor Meeting Takes; Confident in '26 Trajectory; Harder Compare, Don't Care
研报英文原文证据摘录
W: Investor Meeting Takes; Confident in '26 Trajectory; Harder Compare, Don't Care
Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.
NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate
Model takes. 1) Despite fears of a leg lower, W sees GM% sustaining high-29% range in Zachary Fadem, CPA
2H (vs 29.5-30.5% Q2 guide); 2) ~15% Q2 contribution margin seen in-line w/ Q1, but Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Q3 laps marketing 'hold out' tailwind likely limiting q/q upside; 3) While the LT bridge is Zachary.Fadem@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8018
different (vs. W's stale '23 A-Day algo), confidence in 10%+ Adj EBITDA% is unchanged David Lantz
(via fixed cost leverage today & LT unlock via contribution margin, etc.); A better category Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
would aid GM%; 4) $360-370M still the right SOTGA run rate. David.Lantz@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5044
Anthony Trainor
Other takes. 1) W's B2B biz still an opportunity (vs. ~$2B sales & ~17% mix in '23); EquityAnthony.Trainor@wellsfargo.comAnalyst | Wells Fargo Securities,| 212-214-1953LLC
Perigold/Specialty overindex; 2) Influencer mktg pivot proving a more productive channel;
Taylor BrimbergRetail media penetration climbing ~50bps/yr; targets ~3-4% mix LT; 3) Independent Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
retailers losing outsized share; W's overlap w/ AMZN more focused at entry price point Taylor.Brimberg@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-2078
level; 4) Category promo is still high; <1/3rd of promo event (i.e. WayDay) sales come Jessica Louie
from promoted items; 5) Avg customers shop W 2x/yr vs. 6-8x category. Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Jessica.Louie@wellsfargo.com | 332-214-6223
On shares.
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