BMW (1K) | Reduce | Very limited scope for diversification

研报英文原文证据摘录

BMW (1K) | Reduce | Very limited scope for diversification

BMW Reduce | Target Price: EUR60.00

Company description Management

Pursuing a thoroughbred premium-only approach, BMW manufactures vehicles and Oliver Zipse

motorcycles. The company commands a globalised presence of both production and Walter Mertl

demand with offers of financial services products supporting the cash distribution

channel. Besides aiming to increase parts commonality to exploit more economies of Key shareholders

scale, its strategy includes a strong pioneering element, as exemplified by its move Free float 53.30% Stefan Quandt 25.80%

into the industrialisation of carbon fibre and electro-mobility. Susanne Klatten 20.90%

Investment case Valuation methodology

n BMW continues to accelerate its powertrain electrification n We derive our target price using a 2:1 blend of a DCF approach

efforts. While the "Neue Klasse" of BEVs is expected to hit the (average annual FCF of EUR0.9bn, average cost of equity of

market as of 2026, BEV derivatives from the current flexible 15.3%, a 2% perpetual growth rate), and a peer multiple

architecture will support a short-term rise in the BEV ratio. approach (P/E of 6.4x).

n We expect the shortened usage time of the current CLAR n Our estimates included the effects from US import tariffs.

architecture and investments in the forthcoming architecture

Risks to our rating to weigh on Auto EBIT margins. Rising fixed costs and a

n Any indication that BMW may sustainably hit the high end of sluggish Chinese market should lead to Auto EBIT margins

the 8-10% strategic corridor for its Auto EBIT margin. short of the 8-10% target corridor medium term. We expect

n A strong and quick production rebound in key markets the reliance of BMW's financials on ICEV margins to stay high