CMA CGM | Hold | Take some profit after the stellar performance since our upgrade to Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

CMA CGM | Hold | Take some profit after the stellar performance since our upgrade to Buy

isting tariff uncertainties and soft demand. A more aggressive debt-financed M&A strategy (likely)

would exacerbate the pressure on CMA CGM's financial profile, with net leverage now slowly (but surely) grinding higher

(expected above 2x at end-2026E).

▪ We recommend switching back from CMACG 5% Jan 2031 (ISIN: XS3105513769) to Paprec 4.125% Jul 2030 (ISIN: XS3111830959)

for a limited 45bps spread give-up and a slightly lower duration. Alternatively, investors can sell the CMACG 5% 2031 to buy the

Séché Environnement (Schpfp) 4.5% May 2030 (ISIN: XS2895496680) for a similar 44bp give-up and also a slightly lower

duration.

▪ We also recommend switching from CMACG 4.875% Jan 2032 to Dufnsw 4.5% May 2032 (ISIN: XS3037720227) for a 75bps give-

up but much better revenue and earnings visibility. In contrast to CMA CGM, Avolta should benefit from normalisation of air

traffic in the Middle East resulting from the US-Iran deal.

▪ Even the short-dated 5.5% 2029 Notes don't offer much scope for outperformance anymore, now back at 103 mid, i.e. close to

their call price of 102.75. Please note that the call price will drop to 101.375 in July 2027, which results in a yield of less than 4%

to that call date.

▪ We downgrade today our recommendation on all three CMACG bonds from Buy to Hold.

Strong returns since our Nov 2025 upgrade to Buy leave no room for further outperformance

▪ CMA CGM has three bonds outstanding: the EUR600m 5.5% 2029, the EUR600m 5% 2031 and the EUR700m 4.875% 2032 Notes.

All three bonds are senior unsecured and have a BB+ composite rating.

▪ All three bonds have significantly tightened and outperformed their peers and benchmarks since our upgrade from Hold to Buy