An Oncology Play That Isn't a Leap of Faeth; Initiating SNSE at a Buy and $55 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

An Oncology Play That Isn't a Leap of Faeth; Initiating SNSE at a Buy and $55 PT

Investment Thesis

Sensei/Faeth is developing PIKTOR, a combination of sapanisertib (mTORC1/2 inhibitor) and serabelisib (PI3Kα inhibitor) for

endometrial and breast cancer. The investment case sits on three pillars: PI3Kα selectivity and multi-node inhibition delivering

deeper, more durable pathway suppression than single-node inhibitors, a fully oral administration schedule that avoids Cmax bolus

that drives toxicity in other agents, and a near-term, high unmet need endometrial opportunity that no PAM inhibitor has been

approved in. While competition is tough in breast cancer and PIKTOR is behind, the drug's oral format and better tolerability

provides commercial advantages in the large breast cancer market.BIOTECHNOLOGY Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

■ PIK-201 2L+ endometrial cancer phase 2 topline data: 2H26 $40

■ PIK-101 2L+ breast cancer phase 1b/2 interim data: 2027 $35

$30EQUITY

$25

$20

Base Case Assumptions: $55 Price Target $15 $10

We currently ascribe value to PIKTOR in 2L endometrial cancer where we model $794M $5RESEARCH in peak sales and $318M in peak risk-adjusted sales in the US and EU. We assume US Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 launch in 2030, with a monthly price of $27.5K, 15% gross-to-net discount, and peak

market share of 40%. We assume Sensei/Faeth partners for ex-US commercialization, SNSES&P 500 (rebased)

with a 2031 EU launch, 20% peak market penetration and launch price of $21K in that Source: FactSet

geography. We assume Sensei/Faeth receives a 15% royalty on EU sales. We retain

sales in 2L+ all-comer endometrial patients, regardless of PI3K/MTOR mutational Company Description