Two Steps Forward, One Step Back. Lilly Slows as TB Recovers. Reiterate Neutral.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back. Lilly Slows as TB Recovers. Reiterate Neutral.

ing margin expands ~60 bps in 2026, followed by ~50 bps of leverage in 2027

Founded in 1942, and going public inEQUITY 1960, Oxford Industries is a leading

Upside Scenario: $50/sh branded apparel company that designs,

■ Revs are up LSD% YoY in 2026, followed by MSD% growth in 2027 sources, markets, and distributes

■ Gross margin expands 150+ bps YoY in 2026, as outsized DTC growth supports products from its portfolio of seven

expansion while the company is able to offset tariff headwinds to a greater degree distinct lifestyle brands: Tommy Bahama,

than initially expected Lilly Pulitzer, Southern Tide, JohnnyRESEARCH ■ SG&A leverages 20+ bps in 2026 on the stronger top line Was, The Beaufort Bonnet Company

■ Op margin expand 170+ bps in 2026 (TBBC), Duck Head, and Jack Rogers. The

■ EPS of ~$3.25 in '26. Applying a ~15x P/E multiple, slightly below recent highs but company distributes primarily through

relatively in-line with the peer group, implies a ~$50 fair value its own full-price stores, outlets, and

e-commerce websites, along with its

Tommy Bahama food and beverage Downside Scenario: $10/sh locations. The company also distributes

■ Revenue declines LSD% YoY in 2026 and is ~flat YoY in 2027 through the wholesale channel to various

■ Gross margin is up <50 bps YoY in 2026 as the consumer environment deteriorates specialty stores, department stores,

further and the promo environment remains elevated for longer, while tariff multi-branded e-commerce retailers, and

mitigation takes longer than expected and/or tariff rates are raised other retailers.

■ SG&A rate delevers 100+ bps in 2026 off the slower top line

■ Operating margin contracts 50+ bps in 2026

■ EPS of ~$1.60 in '26.