2Q Preview: Calm Before the Storm

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q Preview: Calm Before the Storm

3.4%). We expect flat price/mix with 3%

vols, reflecting the co's focus on vol growth and the innovation pipeline. We expect the

Babycare performance in the quarter to be muted again, as competitors continue to promote

aggressively in a declining category. Essity's focus remains on the Inco category, where it has

structural tailwinds helped by demographics and low penetration.

Consumer Tissue remains challenged. We expect vols and price/mix to remain negative in

2Q26 at -0.5% & -1%, respectively. This leaves OSG -1.5% vs cons -1.3%. The latest Nielsen data

shows an improving volume trend in Europe but price remains below the market level.

Health & Medical. We increase OSG to 1.9% from 1.0% (vs cons 1.9%). We expect the division

to continue operating in a positive tender balance, but the length in contracts makes it difficult

to recover the coming cost inflation. Hence, we model FY26 margin to remain flat vs last year.

Costs on the rise - again. While we expect a continued small benefit from COGS in the quarter

as the 4-6 month time lag in the cost of oil derivs protects, pulp is on the rise. We expect a

much more meaningful headwind in H2 as the company tries to land pricing to offset. The

damage from higher energy costs is limited by near-term hedging, but even with recent relief,

unhedged costs are 30-40% higher than in the prior year.

Valuation methodology change. We revert to a multiples-driven valuation approach. We apply

a blended SOTP target EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.7x, on NTM EBITDA, one year forward to derive

our SEK 263 price target (from SEK 247).

Molly Wylenzek * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8564 | mwylenzek@jefferies.com

FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E David Hayes * | Equity Analyst