Salmon data catch: June 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Salmon data catch: June 2026

Seafood

QTD salmon price of NOK 73/kg, below ABGSCe and consensus

The salmon price so far in Q2 has been weaker-than-expected at the start of the year, and the average price QTD is NOK 73/

kg. This is slightly below our estimate of NOK 75/kg for Q2, but below consensus at around NOK 79-80/kg. Assuming normal

seasonality from the latest price point of NOK 64/kg, the Q2 average would end at NOK 73/kg. If we also assume normal

seasonality for the rest of the year (but note that this exercise is very sensitive to the starting point), the average price for FY'26

would end at NOK 69/kg (vs. ABGSCe NOK 78/kg and consensus ~NOK 80-81/kg).

Weekly salmon price, Norway (NOK/kg) Price seasonality vs. forward price and ABGSCe

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Nasdaq, Sitagri, Fish PoolSource: Sitagri, avg. 1-9+ kg weight classes

Based on QTD prices, our MTM EBIT for Q2 indicates 22% downside to consensus

Based on the QTD price and normal seasonality for the remaining part of Q2, the Q2 price would end at NOK 72.5/kg. In a

marked-to-market exercise, our estimates would on average (mcap weighted) indicate 22% downside risk to current FactSet

consensus for Q2 EBIT. We note that we have only stressed our price assumptions in this MTM exercise and that uncertainty

around biological performance, price achievement and costs remain (see below for more details on biological trends). In

general, stronger-than-expected harvest volumes due to strong biology would suggest upside risk to volumes and downside risk

to cost/kg in Q2.

Q2'26e EBIT: ABGSCe MTM vs. consensus 2026e EBIT: ABGSCe (incl. MTM for Q2) vs. consensus

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Factset Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Factset

23 June 2026 ABG Sundal Collier 3