Douglas AG "A likely margin reset amidst Online pressure" (Neutral) Rajani

研报英文原文证据摘录

Douglas AG "A likely margin reset amidst Online pressure" (Neutral) Rajani

ment. This would likely give some visibility on the pace of deleveraging which is a

EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)

key pillar of the investment case. While there is no clear near term catalyst, DOU shares

From To % ch Cons.

-6% after the guidance downgrade broadly in line with the EBITDA cut implies no

09/26E 1.60 1.23 -23 1.46

further de-rating to the shares. This means valuation has likely found a floor and risk/

09/27E 1.68 1.35 -20 1.49

reward is balanced in our view. Remain Neutral with -5% lower PT at €8.5.

09/28E 1.71 1.39 -18 1.61

SimilarWeb data points to potential share losses to Sephora Yashraj Rajani, CFA

We use SimilarWeb data to assess incremental share of visits noting its limitations as a Analyst

yashraj.rajani@ubs.com

proxy. While we expected Notino and Flaconi to outperform Douglas given the

+44-20-7901 5662

promotional intensity, what's noteworthy is Sephora is also outperforming DOU in

Germany which is the home market calling into question DOU's strategy based on Sreedhar Mahamkali

attracting customers based on exclusivity in the assortment. The picture in France seems Analyst

sreedhar.mahamkali@ubs.com

to be more comforting with Nocibe outperforming, although we note Germany has

+44-20-7568 8040

1.6x users of France with net user development in both markets being negative. We

monitor this closely to assess if DOU is structurally losing share to Sephora which further Guillaume Delmas

calls into question DOU needing a margin reset to compete in Online. Analyst

guillaume.delmas@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8568

FY26e-FY28e adj. EBITDA -8% to -7%; DCF-derived PT -5% to €8.5

We trim FY26e revenue -1% reflecting a more cautious H2 at -1% growth. We expect