European Transport and Infrastructure "Transport & Infra weekly. Key inv..."

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European Transport and Infrastructure "Transport & Infra weekly. Key inv..."

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share price outperformance vs. peers since the start of the Middle East conflict, some

investors asked what could bring more upside from current levels? Aena trades on 10.8x

on our FY27 EV/EBITDA estimates vs. ~12x EV/EBITDA average pre Covid. We see scope

for the DGAC decision (September 2027) to provide a slightly higher outcome in terms

of WACC/tariffs for DORA III relative to CNMC. Looking in more depth at the CNMC

decision, we believe the change of the definition for the risk-free rate calculation vs.

DORA I and DORA II could be challenged, leading to increases in the risk-free rate

parameter. In Dora III CNMC is using an average of the last 5 years spot and forward

rates for the Spanish 10yr gov bond yield vs. the average of the last 6 months used in

DORA I and DORA II. Equally so, we see room for higher opex assumptions in the context

in which CNMC proposes a lower opex forecast underpinned by 0.84x elasticity that

may not fully account for opex related to the capex plan. Furthermore, in the context of

the 2027-2031 strategic plan likely to be presented after the DGAC decision, we see

scope for higher dividends medium term, where we stand 6-7% above consensus. We

expect Aena's focus to remain on offering an attractive cash return to shareholders.

Maersk: What is the Ocean division worth? We recently published a note on Maersk

having a closer look at what the Ocean division could be worth (link). Most incoming

questions were on our view that Maersk may have a market share problem with Ocean.

The analysis of deliveries and age profile of the fleet suggest that, based on the current

order book, Maersk could have ~12% market share in 2030 (18-19% pre-Covid). In our