European Hotel Sector "Weathering the storm: hotel performance by chain ..."

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European Hotel Sector "Weathering the storm: hotel performance by chain ..."

Global Research

19 June 2026ab

European Hotel Sector Equities

Europe including UKWeathering the storm: hotel performance by

chain scale Lodging

Artem Prokopets

Analyst

artem.prokopets@ubs.com

Deconstructing hotel cycles +44-20-7901 5625

In 2025-2026, the hotel market has shown clear signs of bifurcation, with higher-end Jarrod Castle, CFA

segments outperforming midscale & economy. But how might this dynamic evolve in the Analyst

event of a downturn? To address this, we assess how RevPAR, ADR and occupancy jarrod.castle@ubs.com

across different chain scales evolved through past downturns, using historical STR data. +44-20-7568 8883

In particular, we compare midscale & economy with luxury & upper upscale segments Ben Shelley, ACA

across the UK, Germany and Spain and the US. We focus on three key dimensions: pre- Analyst

downturn performance, the subsequent depth of decline at the trough, and overall ben.shelley@ubs.com

cyclicality as measured by peak-to-trough movements. +44-20-7568 3957

Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

Stronger pre-downturn RevPAR growth in UK followed by greater cyclicality Analyst

Our analysis suggests that no hotel segment consistently outperforms through ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

downturns. While higher-end segments often lead RevPAR growth into late-cycle +44-20-7568 3240

periods, this does not necessarily translate into more resilience during periods of stress. Robin M. Farley

In the UK and the US, in fact, stronger pre-downturn performance - typically at the Analyst

higher end of the market - was often followed by greater cyclicality. Outside the UK and robin.farley@ubs.com

the US, there is no clear evidence that any segment is consistently associated with +1-212-713 2060