Huhtamaki Oyj "Q2 looks tougher; North America weighs" (Buy) Huynh

研报英文原文证据摘录

Huhtamaki Oyj "Q2 looks tougher; North America weighs" (Buy) Huynh

Global Research

19 June 2026ab

Huhtamaki Oyj Equities

FinlandQ2 looks tougher; North America weighs

Containers & Packaging

12-month rating Buy

Expect a tougher Q2 with continued macro challenges

We expect Q2 results to be weaker than Q1, with North America the main source of 12m price target €35.00

downside risk and a tougher quarter than current consensus implies. Q1’26 already Prior : €36.50

showed weaker profit conversion in the region, with +8% comp sales growth but

Price (18 Jun 2026) €27.00

reported sales down 1%, Adj EBIT down 16% and margin down to 10.0%. We think

the Q2 bridge is more challenging, as the early Easter benefit reverses, US consumer and RIC: HUH1V.HE BBG: HUH1V FH

foodservice indicators remain soft, and the segment has less margin cushion after the

Trading data and key metrics

Q1 step-down. The key risk is on margins, with recent capacity additions in Hammond

52-wk range €31.90-26.32

and Paris, Texas still requiring better volume absorption to support operating leverage.

We cut Q2 and FY26 EBIT, resulting in a new PT of €35 (from €36.50) and reiterate Buy. Market cap. €2.83b/US$3.25b

Despite the near term downgrade, we continue to see Huhtamaki as a high quality, Shares o/s 105m (ORD)

defensive packaging name with mid-term upside from sustainable packaging, Fiber Free float 95%

growth and disciplined capital allocation. Avg. daily volume ('000) 345

Avg. daily value (m) €9.5

North America weaker, Flexibles resilient, Fiber normalising Common s/h equity (12/26E) €1.98b

We expect North America to remain below the prior margin recovery path through P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

2026, with improvement in H2 but not enough to fully offset a weaker Q2. Q1 has Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.9x