PAYX - Thoughts Ahead of F4Q Earnings

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PAYX - Thoughts Ahead of F4Q Earnings

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PAYCHEX, INC. (PAYX) June 17, 2026

PAYX - Thoughts Ahead of F4Q Earnings Rating:

Underperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $100.28

We lean neutral to slightly cautious on shares of PAYX heading into F4Q26 Price Target:

earnings next week. Believe guidance comes in-line with preliminary outlook $95

on revenue growth, but likely priced into shares at these levels. Maintain % Upside:

(5.3)%Underperform rating and $95 price target.

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●Shares of PAYX are -11% YTD and +7% since reporting F3Q26 earnings. Company Information

We believe the positive performance in shares since earnings has been driven 52-Week Range $86 - $153

by: 1) better-than-expected labor market growth in recent months, 2) investor Market Cap. (MM) $35,929

appreciation for conservatism embedded in the company's 3Q outlook, and 3) a Enterprise Value (MM) $39,234

Shares Out. (MM) 358.3

sense that the company's preliminary guide for FY27 of 5-6% revenue growth Avg. Value Traded (MM) $363.89

was appropriate. Heading into F4Q26 earnings next week (6/24 BMO), we lean SI% of Float 6.2%

neutral to slightly negative on shares as expectations around guidance are likely

baked in at this point. While labor market growth has trended better in recent 160

months, we do not believe that PAYX will guide FY27 revenue growth above 150140

the preliminary range and believe 5-6% makes sense as a starting point. 130

●FY27 Margin Expansion: We see PAYX adjusted operating margins expanding 10090

80 by ~40bps in FY27, more in-line with a typical year from PAYX, which would

see 25-50bps of annual margin expansion.