TSLA – Q2 Deliveries Solid & Favorable Earnings Setup; But Execution of AI / Autonomy Key Driver

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TSLA – Q2 Deliveries Solid & Favorable Earnings Setup; But Execution of AI / Autonomy Key Driver

June 17, 2026

We see those factors largely offsetting S/X Mix headwinds, as those products are phased out, and raw material inflation

(keep in mind that TSLA has longer-term indexing agreements, which helps insulate it from large fluctuations in key

raw mats).

Anticipation of potential SPCX merger provides downside support: TSLA shares have continued to hold up well

as investors gravitate towards SPCX (whose stock is up nearly 50% since last week’s IPO). As we discussed in our

06/09 note, the potential for an eventual SpaceX / Tesla merger has increasingly moved into the mainstream, with some

investors now making it their primary thesis for owning TSLA stock. We argue that Elon Musk is likely strongly in favor of

such a deal, for multiple reasons including: (a) giving it voting control at TSLA; (b) creating an integrated AI leader, with

TSLA providing superior real-world data and SPCX offering equipment and compute; (c) broader base to raise capital

needed for AI development. We flagged risks as well, including potential regulatory hurdles tied to Tesla’s sizable China

operations. Ultimately, completion of a possible merger is unlikely until mid-2027 (at the earliest) in our view, though

anticipation could provide downside support for TSLA stock.

In the meantime, it comes down to AI execution for Tesla investors. The company appears to be doing well around the

core businesses, with solid deliveries, strong Auto pricing, and strong Energy storage demand. But…these represent

a small piece of valuation. The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and

more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services.