FX Viewpoint: G10 Balance of Payments – Geopolitics

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FX Viewpoint: G10 Balance of Payments – Geopolitics

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FX Viewpoint

G10 Balance of Payments – Geopolitics

From one shock to another 19 June 2026

The global economy is moving from one external shock to another. Just as markets were G10 FX Strategy

beginning to absorb the impact of tariffs, a renewed geopolitical shock and higher oil Global

prices are adding fresh pressure to global trade and cross-border capital flows. While the Kamal Sharma

latest balance-of-payments data only run through Q4 2025 and therefore capture more FX Strategist

tariff noise than conflict-related effects, they still provide a useful starting point for MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 4855

assessing how external positions may evolve over the coming year. ksharma32@bofa.com

CAB Heading into US-Iran conflict

At the end of 2025, G10 current-account positions remained broadly stable, with no

major shift from surplus to deficit economies or vice versa. But the experience of 2022

highlights a possible direction of travel: terms-of-trade shocks tend to worsen external

balances for oil importers and support those of exporters, with Norway the clearest CAB: Current Account Balance

positive outlier during the last major energy shock. A greater shift toward services trade

ToT: Terms of tradein some economies may soften the blow this time, but it is unlikely to fully offset the

drag from higher energy prices.

Basic balance variability

For FX, the more important signal comes not from the current account alone but from

the basic balance—the current account adjusted for net portfolio and FDI flows. On this

measure, capital flows are creating meaningful divergence across G10. The UK and

Switzerland have benefited from strong inflows, Japan’s external position has improved,