Canadian Population Declines Again in Q1/26

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Canadian Population Declines Again in Q1/26

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: INDUSTRY UPDATE

June 18, 2026

■Communications Canadian Population Declines Again in Q1/26

Vince Valentini, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 944 7012

StatsCan just published Q1/26 data, and as shown in Figure 1, there was a decline in

vince.valentini@tdsecurities.com

population for the third quarter in a row, albeit less erosion than in Q4/25 or Q3/25. The culprit

Natale Puccia, CFA^ remains NPR (temporary students and workers), where policies are restricting entry. As we

416 983 6399 highlighted in our study permit data note (LINK), NPR outflows are moderating from highs seen

natale.puccia@tdsecurities.com

in Q3/25.

Carter Sullivan, CPA^

416 983 3954 The data released supports our view that population growth will remain near zero through

carter.sullivan@tdsecurities.com FY26, which implies that wireless industry subscriber growth will likely be no better than 2%

(which would be driven by penetration gains).

We also highlight that our models do not suggest a return to meaningful population growth

in 2027, but there could be some possibility that the government allows a small incremental

amount of students and foreign workers by H2/27.

We do not yet have any granular channel check data for sub adds in Q2/26, but preliminary

observations suggest another sluggish quarter with moderate Y/Y declines versus Q2/25.

Given that things have been relatively stable, we hope that this is a signal that the industry

realizes that better ARPU growth is required when there are atypical levels of low volume

growth.

Additionally, we note that the industry may also be looking to stay disciplined on service plans

given that there might be more of a promotional shift towards handset subsidies. If these