FX forecast update A new sheriff in town

研报英文原文证据摘录

FX forecast update A new sheriff in town

18 June 2026

FX forecast update CurrenciesGlobal

A new sheriff in town

◆ The outcome of the June FOMC provides the key ingredient Paul Mackel

to re-embrace a stronger USD again Global Head of FX Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

paulmackel@hsbc.com

◆ The lack of forward guidance and more focus on inflation keeps +852 2288 5523

the Fed rate hike scenario alive and the USD supported

◆ We subsequently make changes to our FX forecasts to

reflect an elevated broad USD across our forecast horizon

The USD has strengthened following the June FOMC meeting, which showed

policymakers are split on whether a shift to rate hikes may be needed this year. While

that even split could be read as a “neutral” outcome, the rise in front-end US yields

and the USD suggests markets interpreted the message as more hawkish than

expected. It also points to the shift in tone versus previous meetings – clearly less

dovish, and therefore supportive for the USD.

The shift in projections has not just added support to the USD. An important

takeaway from both the summary statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference

was that the FOMC is unambiguous in its pursuit for price stability. Warsh

explicitly ruled out re-examining the Fed’s current inflation target. The creation of five

“task forces” at the Fed (including one focused on communications), as well as his

known criticism of forward guidance, creates new layers of uncertainty.

We believe the lack of forward guidance and more focus on inflation keeps the Fed

rate hike scenario alive. This in turn is favouring the USD from a rates differential

perspective, as market pricing for Fed hikes has continued to build but pricing for