OSEBX weekly valuation monitor

研报英文原文证据摘录

OSEBX weekly valuation monitor

Gjensidige Forsikring

BUY, Target price NOK 300, Share price NOK 249 Financials, MCAP NOK 124,400m

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Unwarranted sell-off amid overstated fears of AI-disruption, Danish WC ruling and regulatory scrutiny

• AI fears regarding distribution model and autonomous vehicles are overdone;

• Business- and distribution model fears: Market underestimate the uniqueness of the Nordic market and consumer needs.

• Autonomous vehicles: AVs are likely inflationary on claims (and premiums), and highly unlikely to make car insurance obsolete.

• Danish SC ruling on workers comp. (WC) weighs on sentiment, but we think the outcome can be net-positive to the insurers.

• We consider concerns of Norwegian authorities interfering due to temporary strong profitability highly speculative.

Significant earnings momentum, with upside risk to both short-term and longer-term estimates

• Strong premium growth momentum, operational improvements, scale and cost initiatives to drive earnings +10% p.a. in ’26e-’28e.

• Q2 seems to be another highly benign insurance quarter and the investment result is set to rebound after a muted Q1.

• Premium growth expectations of 4-5% for ’27e-’28e likely too conservative; potential 8-12% upside risk to ’27e-28e EPS.

35% TSR potential next 12 months; unmatched risk/reward across our Norwegian Financials coverage

• Ripe for a re-rating; ’27e-’28e P/E 14x-13x, 20-25% discount to 10Y avg. P/E.

• 7-8% dividend yield amid a strong solvency position despite a temporary hit from the Danish WC reserves strengthening.

• A ’27e EPS of NOK 19 scenario is not unrealistic – applying a P/E 17.5x gives NOK 317 + NOK 16 in DPS; 12m TSR of 35%.