Japan Essentials - 18 Jun 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Essentials - 18 Jun 2026

Macquarie Equity Research

17 June 2026

Semicons & Semicon Equip

KYEC Taiwan

Multiple growth drivers with less competition

Jeffrey Leo

Key Points Ohlweiler Tsai

• We forecast a 35% sales CAGR 2026-28E driven by longer testing times 2449 TT Outperform

(GPU transition), CPU growth (multiple customers), and ASIC growth. Price (at 17 Jun 2026) TWD280.50

• We expect GPU final testing competition is pushed out again. 12-month target TWD348.00 12-month TSR (%) 26.7

Additionally, we believe a slower Rubin ramp in 2026 is already more Volatility Index High

than priced-in. Market Cap (Local) (m) 342,980

Market Cap (USD) (m) 10,864• Key share price drivers in 2H are: Rubin ramp, and 1H reversal of its

valuation premium vs a key competitor. Upgrade to Outperform (from Free Float (%) 85

30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 405.5

Neutral).

Investment Fundamentals

Year end 31 Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

AI/HPC continue to drive strong growth through 2028 Revenue (m) 34,934 48,975 67,206 86,794

Revenue growth (%) 20.1 40.2 37.2 29.1

• AI % already crossed 50% of sales. We believe strong AI capex will EBITEBIT (m)growth (%) 9,00335.8 13,83653.7 20,29746.7 26,31529.7

continue over 2026-28E, along with new chips and longer testing times, Reported profit (m) 11,015 11,082 16,382 21,273

which should drive 40% sales growth in 2026E (with continued high Adjusted profit (m) 11,015 11,082 16,382 21,273

momentum in 2027/28E). EPS rep [TWD] 9.0 9.1 13.4 17.4

EPS rep growth (%) 41.1 0.6 47.8 29.9

• Competition delayed again. We no longer expect any material EPS adj [TWD] 9.0 9.1 13.4 17.4

competition for AI-related (GPU) final testing orders through at least EPS adj growth (%) 41.1 0.6 47.8 29.9

Net debt/equity (%) 24.4 72.5 87.6 93.3