TSCO - Lowering ests/PT again; still a few wks left, but feels too far behind to make it up

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TSCO - Lowering ests/PT again; still a few wks left, but feels too far behind to make it up

R to Target 5.3% We think it would be prudent for the company to lower expectations – IF our data/

Price (Jun. 12, 2026) $31.25 new forecasts are in the ballpark, we believe it would be prudent for the company to reset

52-Wk Range $62.65-$29.14 expectations for the year. As we highlighted in our January downgrade, it has been difficult

Market Cap ($M) $16,500 to pinpoint “WHY” Tractor continues to run below expectations and their own growth algo of

ADTV 7,358,031 3%-5% comps. We suspect the trend is likely due to some combination of: (1) the slower

Shares Out (M) 528 housing market (working on your land is a derivative of the home), (2) softer consumer trends

(recently higher gas prices are adding even more pressure to big ticket/discretionary sales), Short Interest Ratio/% Of Float 4.5%

(3) modest reductions in large dog ownership, and maybe most importantly, (4) increased Dividend/Yield $0.92/2.9% competition.

Enterprise Value ($M) $18,401

Cash & Equivalents ($M) $224 Fewer dogs reduce their TAM, but the competitive angle is the most concerning

Total Debt ($M) $2,125 – The slower housing market and softer consumer trends are macro factors, where the

market is usually relatively forgiving (i.e., less impact to the stock’s multiple). However, the

reduced dog ownership challenge that management has been highlighting seems to be a

8 Page Document bigger issue. Dogs, especially larger farm dogs, have historically been Tractor’s bread and

butter and a key traffic driver. If there are fewer large dogs due to household cost issues,

Reasons for this report then it effectively reduces the TAM for Tractor in a key category (arguing for a harsher valuation discount).