Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

研报英文原文证据摘录

Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Global Research

18 June 2026ab

Pole Position Equities

Europe including UKUBS European & US Autos Daily

Automobiles

Patrick Hummel, CFA

BMW: Updated financial model, new €70 PT (from €88) after profit warning Analyst

Following Tuesday’s material profit warning which we covered here, we update our patrick.hummel@ubs.com

financial forecasts. We cut our SOTP-based PT accordingly to €70 (from €88), +41-44-239 52 54

maintaining our Neutral rating. In more detail, we now assume auto EBIT margin at David Lesne

2.3% for 2026E (from 4.5%) including ~100bps restructuring, 4.0% for 2027E (from Analyst

6.1%) and 5.1% for 2028E (from 6.9%). On EPS level, this represents a cut by -44% for david.lesne@ubs.com

2026E, -28% for 2027E and -23% for 2028E. We factor in the additional market-related +33-14-888 3034

headwinds as flagged in the profit warning (China & APAC volume and pricing, higher Joseph Spak, CFA

cost inflation & offsetting cost action, namely headcount reduction predominantly in Analyst

Germany and additional variable cost cutting by leveraging the Chinese chain). We think joseph.spak@ubs.com

product (Neue Klasse) remains a positive driver for BMW’s top line & auto EBIT in 2027 as +1-212-713 3089

more models ramp up globally; however, our estimates do not factor in a recovery in Juan Perez-Carrascosa

China. This puts BMW shares on ~7x P/E for 2027E and ~6x P/E for 2028E, which Analyst

appears fair to us. The updated SOTP model reflects the lower earnings estimates; other juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.com

assumptions remain unchanged. Client conversations since the profit warning have +34-91-436 9025

shown that the appetite of long-only investors to “buy the dip” is low; the narrative of Paul Gong