Vail Resorts Inc "What's Changing In Our Model" (Neutral) Kocharyan

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vail Resorts Inc "What's Changing In Our Model" (Neutral) Kocharyan

'25 levels. This outlook seems to be relying on Q4E (4.87) (4.90) NM (5.22)

stronger lift visitation and improvement in pass product sales in the fall, assuming more 07/26E 5.24 4.56 -13 4.23

normalized weather patterns. Management says historically U.S. ski market data 07/27E 7.32 6.91 -6 6.51

indicates that visitation typically fully recovers following a season with poor conditions, if 07/28E 7.90 7.48 -5 7.37

subsequent season has normal conditions. And we note consensus is already modeling

Arpine Kocharyanthat recovery.

Analyst

Can lift volume make up for pass shortfall? Vail says strong double digit arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com

increase in lift tickets is not inconceivable given impact on pass sales after a tough +1-212-713 2086

season, and that in years when Vail was growing pass units at a double digit range Robin M. Farley

they saw significant decline in lift tickets. So '27E could see a reversal of that, with Analyst

stronger growth in lift visitors, with Vail saying the key is to have different price robin.farley@ubs.com

points available to the consumer. +1-212-713 2060

Derin Sezercan

May softness partly driven by timing of benefit tickets: May deceleration vs.

Associate Analyst

April deadline was partially driven by the timing of miliary sales, according to derin.sezercan@ubs.com

management, and pull-forward of some of those sales into April (as Vail is offering +1-212-713 4716

benefit tickets to military pass holder for the first time) and also by the timing of

auto renew charges (though we note actual timing of when those auto renew

Highlights (US$k) 07/23 07/24 07/25 07/26E 07/27E 07/28E 07/29E 07/30E

Revenues 2,889,364 2,885,191 2,964,347 2,838,103 3,045,425 3,140,780 3,232,215 3,326,675