Telecom Argentina "Unpacking TEO-TMA's remedies resolution" (Buy) Olmos

研报英文原文证据摘录

Telecom Argentina "Unpacking TEO-TMA's remedies resolution" (Buy) Olmos

limited, with market share declining from 45% to 43%.

UBS's take: In our view, the most important aspect of the antitrust authority’s

resolution is the preservation of a three-player mobile market structure. On the one

hand, we believe this could limit — but not fully eliminate — the market repair

impact that a two-player market structure could have delivered, given that the new

operator would have a much smaller scale, with only 9% market share. Regarding

the size of the remedies, we believe they were already priced in, as they came

broadly in line with the recommendations issued by the telecom regulator

(ENACOM) in late March 2026.

Spectrum Divestitures could challenge Capacity Constraints of the combined

entity

What the remedies imply: Return of 130MHz of spectrum, likely concentrated in 4G

bands, given that the combined entity would exceed the 140MHz 4G spectrum cap

(140MHz from TEO + 130MHz from TMA), while remaining below the 150MHz 5G cap

(100MHz from TEO + 50MHz from TMA).

UBS's take: Operationally, we see greater concern around the spectrum remedies,

as TEO would be absorbing an incremental 13mn mobile subscribers (net of

remedies) — representing 68% growth vs Telecom's existing subscriber base — while

maintaining the same amount of 4G spectrum. We continue to believe this could put

pressure on network quality in certain regions, although part of the traffic could be

directed to 5G frequencies to mitigate this effect. In addition, the need for

spectrum refarming could require some level of incremental network investment.

What's next?

We expect the timeline for implementing the remedies at around 18-24 months, in

line with ENACOM's March 2026 technical recommendation. Uncertainty remains