EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch: Restructuring of the Hungarian curve is almost over

研报英文原文证据摘录

EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch: Restructuring of the Hungarian curve is almost over

Accessible version

EEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch

Restructuring of the Hungarian curve is

almost over

Positioning is crowded implying high risks for receivers 17 June 2026

Long positioning in bonds and swaps in Hungary is crowded and the rally so far has been GEM FI & FX Strategy

rapid and decisive. The 10y is already below our target level (Exhibit 1), while the 5y has EEMEA

about an extra 10bps to rally (Exhibit 2). Higher core rates, upside inflation surprises in Mikhail Liluashvili

Hungary or less credible than expected fiscal policy might result in a significant sell-off EEMEA Local Markets Strategist

in rates and bonds, in our view. MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 1142

mikhail.liluashvili@bofa.com

10y swap fully prices in better fundamentals... EEMEA FI Strategy & Economics

The 10y swap in Hungary is pricing in better fundamentals than in Poland and is closer MLI (UK)

to Czech coefficients than to Polish (Exhibit 1). It is also circa 10bps below our target, GEMs FI Strategy & Economics BofAS

which assumes that Hungarian swaps in the belly and long end settle halfway between

Poland and Czechia. Our analysis assumes current monetary policy pricing is fair and that

core rates remain stable. For the methodology of our analysis please see: For a list of open trade

recommendations and tradeBofA Global Research Reports

recommendations closed in the last

Title: Subtitle Primary Author Date Published

12 months, see Global EmergingEEMEA FI & FX Strategy Watch: We remain structurally bullish Mikhail Liluashvili 14 May 2026

Hungarian local bonds & swaps Markets Weekly: Real shocks,

Emerging Insight: Hungary – euro adoption is not yet fully in GEMs FI Strategy & 29 April 2026 artificial returns 12 June 2026