US Economic Perspectives: Yield to Warsh: 50bps of hikes in 2026

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US Economic Perspectives: Yield to Warsh: 50bps of hikes in 2026

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US Economic Perspectives 19 June 2026

Yield to Warsh: 50bps of hikes in 2026

Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.

In recent weeks, we built a case that the Fed could well need to raise rates. Chief US Economist

+1-212-250-6161

We argued that the underlying drivers of inflation pressures looked more

concerning as we raised doubts about the disinflation story (see “Five doubts Brett Ryan

about the US disinflation story”). Those concerns were reinforced by our findings Senior US Economist

that inflationary pressures are broad-based and not only due to one-offs like +1-212-250-6294

tariffs and energy (see “What’s keeping inflation above 2%? Almost everything”).

Justin Weidner

Economist We also argued that last year’s sequence of rate cuts may have left the Fed +1-212-469-1679

“overinsured” against downside risks to the labor market, which did not

materialize (see “Overinsured?”). The current policy rate is meaningfully below Amy Yang

levels prescribed by various policy rules the Fed typically references, Economist

using current data or near-term forecasts, as well as the Fed’s view on r-star +1-212-250-9959

versus our own.

But amidst heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook due to the war in

Iran, and with much to be learned about a potentially new reaction function under

Fed Chair Warsh, we held off from adjusting our baseline Fed view. The June

FOMC meeting demonstrated that the Committee leans hawkish and newly-

minted Chair Warsh reinforced that signal, as he emphasized a need to “fix” the

ongoing inflation problem (see “Rock Chalk, Warsh hawk”). Resolution in Iran

pushes in the opposite direction, as oil prices have fallen sharply, helping to tame