Refined Product Monthly, June 2026: Tracking US & Global Balances

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Refined Product Monthly, June 2026: Tracking US & Global Balances

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 17, 2026

■Integrated Oil: Integrated Oils & Major Refined Product Monthly, June 2026: Tracking

Producers

& Marketing US & Global Balances■Refining

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1309

We remain constructive on refining outlook factoring in a potential SoH reopening. Mideast,

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

RUS, and China product exports are down 1.5MM bpd y/y. US increased exports 0.8MM bpd as

Anthony Petrino a partial offset, though we expect that rate to decline. Int'l product exports may improve at the

646 562 1364 earliest August, meaning product deficits grow until 4Q while cracks could stay elevated into

anthony.petrino@tdsecurities.com

'27 to rebuild inventories.

Will Avila

646 562 1344 Remain Constructive On Refining

will.avila@tdsecurities.com

We continue to see a constructive environment for refining margins into 2027 even after news

Jeremy Meanwell of a potential SoH reopening. The outlook is echoed in recent price dynamics, with only a

646 562 1374

modest decline in futures cracks the past few days and relatively stable spot cracks. We utilize

jeremy.meanwell@tdsecurities.com

US EIA data for US petroleum supply/demand, Kpler data for key product net exports and our

forecast for global refining capacity

Products Draw March - May Estimate 75 - 140MM bbls

Middle East gasoline, diesel, and jet exports have been running at a 1MM bpd y/y deficit the

past few months. RUS is down 0.3MM bpd due to continued UKR attacks. China is down

0.2MM bpd. Declines from March to May total ~140MM bbl or 1.5MM bpd and are heavily

weighted to distillates. We are able to observe 95MM bbl lost product between product on

water and observable inventories.