CMD Preview - Keeping the Cost Focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

CMD Preview - Keeping the Cost Focus

Norway | Integrated Oil

Equinor EquityJuneResearch15, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGECMD Preview - Keeping the Cost Focus

Investor focus ahead of EQNR's CMD on Tues 17 Jun, is if share buybacks RATING HOLD

will be increased beyond the current ~$1.5bn (on top of 39cts/sh qtly div, PRICE NOK348.40^

$4bn p.a.). Our view is no increase right now given that, even with the Iran PRICE TARGET | % TO PT NOK380.00 | +9%

conflict price uplift, we still estimate ~$23bn free cashflow 2025-27 which is 52W HIGH-LOW NOK422.30 - NOK226.40

inline to last year's CMD headline outlook and includes the further reduction FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 26.7% | 127.15

in capex in response to (pre-conflict) "market developments" at FY25 results. MARKET CAP NOK1.0T | $107.3B

TICKER EQNR NO

"reducing capex and maintaining stable opex while growing production" was a focus of the 2025 ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

CMU with $23bn free cashflow estimated across 2025-27 (at $70/b baseline) after ~$13bn

capex each year. This supports a "competitive capital distribution" growing qtly cash dividend

2cts/yr (now 39cts/sh) with "commitment to competitive share buy-back level". (currently $1.5bn Cal CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in 2026). See inside the note for CMU history back to 2023. 2026 2027 2026 2027

EPS +3% NM -3% +3%

Production growth via International & Norway refocus. The >10% growth 2024 to 2027 (from

NP* +3% NM NA NA

CMU 2025) remains on track, indeed 1Q26 saw record quarterly production of 2.31mmboe/d

+9% y/y. We expect the CMU to focus on Norway NCS outlook to 2035 following on from the

2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 Cal

March 2026 presentation which outlined the "step-up needed to maximize value and resources"

NP* 3,695.0 3,394.6 2,615.4 2,940.4 12,645.4