V012 Hits in Dialysis Access + Dilutive Follow-On; Remain Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

V012 Hits in Dialysis Access + Dilutive Follow-On; Remain Neutral

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u n e 1 7 , 2 0 2 6

Humacyte, Inc. (HUMA) Neutral

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$1.03

Remain Neutral rated on HUMA shares. The P3 V012 interim data provide a stat-sig TARGET: US$1.00

result in dialysis access, potentially expanding the TAM for Symvess significantly beyond 13x FY27E sales, discounted back at 25%/yr to

vascular trauma. However, we still see significant regulatory risk and commercial execution mid-2027 (assumes ~281M shares)

as lackluster uptake in vascular trauma suggests that future expansion into dialysis access

may struggle to drive value creation for shareholders. For our part, we think the business Allison M. Bratzel, CFA

Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

case for Symvess in dialysis access is much stronger than vascular trauma and model 312 267-5025, allison.bratzel@psc.com

a late-2027 approval, with the indication growing to >$180M in revenue by 2035E. Even Ashleigh Acker

with the recent ~$47M follow-on shoring up the balance sheet, we estimate cash runway Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

to ~mid-2027, and remain very firmly on the sidelines. 312 267-5021, ashleigh.acker@psc.com

Peter Spanogiannopoulos, Ph.D.

• V012 meets primary endpoint at interim analysis. The P3 V012 trial was conducted Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

in patients requiring hemodialysis access in women with ESRD, a population with a high 312 267-5039,

peter.spanogiannopoulos@psc.com

unmet need as standard of care AVFs (arteriovenous fistulas) fail to mature in ~50% of

women due to smaller vessel anatomy, leading to prolonged and dangerous catheter Changes Previous Current

dependence. At the interim analysis, when n=80 patients reached 1 year of follow-up, Rating — Neutral