Sizing Another Google AI Revenue Stream

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Sizing Another Google AI Revenue Stream

Equity Research

Industry Update — June 15, 2026

Internet

Gemini API Token Revenue Run Rate $14B Exiting '26

Our Call Ken Gawrelski

Gemini API token revenue inflecting higher, estimated to nearly triple Q/Q in 2Q to $1.5B Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Ken.Gawrelski@wellsfargo.com | 617-210-3707

and further accelerate in 2H, more than doubling again by 4Q to ~$14B revenue run rate.

Zachary MorrisseySurging API token consumption, ~2x Q/Q, driven by enterprise use cases.

Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Zachary.Morrissey@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5344

GOOGL AI monetization accelerating as I/O disclosed 19B Gemini tokens/min up Audey Ashkar

~2x Q/Q in 2Q:26 implies ~$6B API revenue run-rate, or 6.5% of WFSe 2Q:26 GCP Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

revenue, showing progression of Gemini usage to material GCP revenue driver from Audey.Ashkar@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-7393

adoption signal. The implied revenue run-rate suggests a near tripling Q/Q, w/ the surge David Umansky

in Gemini tokens aided by token pricing flipping to tailwind w/ release of Gemini 3.5 Flash, Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

estimated 3x more expensive vs Gemini 3 Flash. David.Umansky@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-1406

George Rusnak

Expect 4Q:26 Gemini API revenue run-rate to more than double vs. 2Q:26 to ~ Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC George.C.Rusnak@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-6573

$14B, driven by rising token prices on the Gemini 3.5 family, at which point Gemini

Barath Rao, CFAAPI revenue would represent HSD% of GCP revenue. We estimate Gemini API rev

hits 7% of GCP rev in 2026 vs.