A.P. Moller-Maersk "Maersk - What is the Ocean division worth?" (Neutral)

研报英文原文证据摘录

A.P. Moller-Maersk "Maersk - What is the Ocean division worth?" (Neutral)

%vs.2019overthelastsixmonths-excedingexpectations.) continues to come in stronger than P/BV (12/26E) 0.7x

expected. However, zooming in on FY25/FY26e we estimate the Ocean RoCE is modest Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.0x

(4%/2%) despite the industry generating a healthy level of EBIT margins (Figure 6MaerskcontinuestounderperformpersinEBITmarginsince2019.) vs

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

history. Maersk Ocean profitability is underperforming most peers (Figure 8MaerskachievesanaverageEBITmarginbelowthatoftheindustrybyc.6%). In line with

From To % ch Cons.

other ocean carriers and in the context of an average fleet age of ~14 years, the invested 12/26E 67.58 146.23 116 27.09

capital and accounting depreciation are understating the economic depreciation or the 12/27E (1.66) (52.37) NM (45.20)

replacement value of the fleet. In this sense - HOLT CFROI for Maersk Group in FY25 12/28E 111.66 (37.10) NM (33.44)

stands at 1.7% vs. the company reported ROCE of 5.7%. CFROI stands well below

HOLT real discount rate of 6.5%. Moreover things are unlikely to get better mid-term to Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

reflect current order book at 37% of the active fleet. Supply is likely to outgrow demand Analyst

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

going forward (Figure 13Weestimatethatby2030owned-veselsaged25+yearswilbe13%ofMaersk'sfletvs.theorderboktodayat37%oftheownedflet). So if ROCE and FCF are underwhelming in "good years" for

+44-20-7568 4375

the industry, what is the correct valuation for Ocean? We value Ocean at 0.2x EV/IC to

reflect our estimates for FCF burn and negative ROCE for Ocean over 2027-2028. Samuel Goldstone

Associate Analyst

samuel.goldstone@ubs.com

Does capital allocated to Ocean have to increase mid-term vs.