KION "UBS Evidence Lab inside: bigger is better" (Buy) Weier

研报英文原文证据摘录

KION "UBS Evidence Lab inside: bigger is better" (Buy) Weier

might cause investment decisions to take longer, the structural

From To % ch Cons.

growth picture seems intact, with a low automation penetration rate and labour force 12/26E 3.83 3.57 -7 3.68

pressure the main drivers. Short-term growth is now seen at 5.7%, on average (5.4% in 12/27E 4.88 4.40 -10 4.67

2025), and average medium-term growth at 4.2% (4.2%). However, weighted by capex 12/28E 5.58 5.28 -5 5.46

budget size short term growth is seen at 9.6% (8.7%) and mid-term growth at 6.3%

(5.5%). KION comes out again as the clear number one in the survey followed by Sven Weier

Swisslog and Toyota Industries. Analyst

sven.weier@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8278

We expect mixed results on 30 July. We cut our truck EBIT < guidance

Andre KukhninWe expect Q2 results along the lines of Q1 and consistent with KION earlier indications

Analyst

with truck orders largely down q/q due to the Q1 pre-buy, IAS orders somewhat slower andre.kukhnin@ubs.com

than the bullish Q1, flat ITS EBIT and somewhat higher IAS. The guidance assumes a +44-20-7567 2162

backend-loaded Q4. While we do see some of the usual seasonality we think it will not

Hemal Bhundia, CFA

be enough to reach the truck EBIT guidance. This is because sales mix is likely to be too

much weighted to lower margin entry-level trucks whereas the recovery in higher hemal.bhundia@ubs.com

margin ICE trucks was always contingent on a (German) cyclical recovery. Given the +44-20-7901 6515

unsolved geopolitical uncertainties we pushed our hopes for this into 2027. We have cut

our 2026-28 EBIT estimates by 5-8%, are now 7-10% below consensus but think the

shares already price at least 35% based on different approaches.

Valuation: we cut our price target to €59 from €68