Mexican Airports "A better runway ahead: ASUR’s recovery and M&A drive u..."

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Mexican Airports "A better runway ahead: ASUR’s recovery and M&A drive u..."

Global Research

17 June 2026ab

Mexican Airports Equities

Latin AmericaA better runway ahead: ASUR’s recovery and

M&A drive upgrade to Buy Transportation Services

Alberto Valerio

Analyst

alberto.valerio@ubs.com

ASUR shows the most attractive risk/reward; upgrading to Buy +55-11-2767 6918

We are upgrading ASUR to Buy (PT P$630 from P$670) as we see it offering the most Andressa Varotto

compelling upside skew in the sector. We keep GAP at Neutral (PT P$460) and OMA at Analyst

Sell (PT P$225 from P$230). While Mexican airport valuations have compressed with andressa.varotto@ubs.com

soft traffic trends, we see a recovery path for ASUR. The Master Development Plan +55-11-2767 6654

(MDP) framework should help limit traffic-related downside to aeronautical Rafael Simonetti

revenues, while the non-aeronautical revenue outlook remains constructive with Associate Analyst

the new US retail operations and Cancun T1 reopening. We also expect catalysts rafael.simonetti@ubs.com

into 2026/27, with traffic recovery likely supported by fewer aircraft groundings, +55-11-2767 6628

higher Mexico City Intl Airport (AICM) takeoff and landing limits, and potentially a

more benign airfare backdrop if lower oil prices persist. In addition, ASUR’s

acquisition of Motiva’s airports, expected to start consolidating in 2H26, adds

another source of upside, as we view the transaction as value-accretive and not

priced in. We estimate market is pricing in 1.5% non-aeronautical revenue 5y CAGR

in Mexico for ASUR vs 10% while UBSe. Meanwhile, we see GAP fairly priced and OMA

still expensive amid the worsening operating momentum.

Our take on Motiva acquisition (ASUR) and CBX + TAA transaction (GAP)