First Read: Vinci "Autoroute/airport traffic broadly stable y/y in May" (Buy)

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Vinci "Autoroute/airport traffic broadly stable y/y in May" (Buy)

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 13.6%

Forecast dividend yield 4.4%

Forecast stock return 18.0%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return 10.3%

Company Description

Vinci is one of the world's leading concession and construction/contracting groups. In 2025,

the group generated EUR74.6bn in revenue, with France accounting for around 41% and the

rest coming from international markets. Vinci continues to control over half of France's tolled

motorway network through its main concessions ASF, Escota and Cofiroute. The group also

owns and operates airports worldwide with major platforms such as ANA (Portugal) and

London Gatwick. Vinci Airports recorded >330m passengers in 2025. EBIT was split

62%/38% between the concessions and contracting divisions in 2025.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Construction companies are by their nature exposed to national building and construction

cycles, which are influenced by the level of interest rates, GDP growth, employment and

demographic factors. Changes to government spend can also affect workload. Contractors

with strong foreign exposure are also sensitive to exchange rates, although this is usually

limited to currency translation risk. Vinci is exposed to changes in government policy, in

particular in France. Vinci also has significant exposure to toll motorway and airport

concessions. Concessions are affected by varying levels from interest rates, inflation rates,

government regulation (including restrictions on mobility), consumer preferences and

competition from different modes of transportation affecting traffic levels. Our price target is

based on SOP using DCF for the motorways and airports and a blended EV/EBIT target